Design and Risk:

          Throughout the world, the designs, structures and technologies built through engineering can be seen as some of the most valuable yet complex inventions of our time. Although engineering in today's society can be seen as exciting in advancing ourselves for the better, we must always take into consideration the risk of failure when it comes to developing these designs. When studying what this means, understanding the equation, vulnerability x probability of occurrence x cost (or magnitude) / mitigation or preparedness, is extremely important. Although this equation can be seen as slightly awkward to the average person, it plays as a huge factor in the development process that could essentially lead to saving lives. 

          First we must begin with vulnerability. At a glance, I consider this word to represent the measurment of susceptibility that a design or process has when it comes to risk of failure. With an abundant amount of options a design can have built into it, one can find the same amount of vulnerable points that come with each option. To exemplify, an engineer must take into consideration the effects of weather and outdoor environments when deciding what kind of a material a car should be built out of. Will steal withhold snowstorm and hailstorms? Will the type of rubber that makes up the wheel withstand rough terrain? All these examples of vulnerabilites are important factors when it comes to developing a system.

          Probability also makes up an important point in the equation. As it can be closely related to vulnerability, my interpretation of "probability of occurance" could be described as the likelyhood of a bad scenario taking place during the use or active state of a design. In my opinion, a system with a potentially high risk of failure would be not be recommended by most engineers. One of the most important and beneficial ways in the development process is by learning from mistakes and studying the history of a design. I feel as though narrowing down past mistakes and designing a system that will prevent the same mistakes in the future will decrease the probability of failure.

          As the last word in the numerator, i believe the cost is the most important part of the equation. My thought lies with the fact that we must always take into consideration the cost of failur when it comes to designing a process or system. Since no one is perfect, no system is perfect and with that comes its costs and magnitudes of its failures. Being aware of how destructive a design can be is important and could potentially save lives and the environment it is build in. Essentially, Worst case scenarios must never be overlooked.

          Since all these numerators go hand in hand with one another, they are mulitplied to give us a greater outcome. However we must not forget about the denominator represented by the word, Mitigation. Being put there for a reason, my belief is that this mitigation is the process of precautions and protections that were taken advantage of to help decrease the product of the numerator. In other words, preperation and having an insurance-like mindset before producing a design could ultimately reduce the risk of failure and avoid catastrophes. I feel as though without the denominator of this equation, failure would be promised.

          In my opinion, the best design that could examplify this equation would be a motor vehicle. To put it towards the equation, we can see that the probability of failure could ultimately depend on the driver. Will the driver be using this vehicle daily? Will they be traveling far everyday? The more the car is put to use, the more wear and tear a driver will experience. To satisfy this result, engineers must take into consideration the amount of use a person will get out of the vehicle.

          The cost of a bad scenario when it comes to vehicles could potentially be life threatening. engineers must be sure in developing a safe and strong vehicle that could avoid killing someone when placed into an accident. Although difficult to avoid, there are many mitigation processes such as crash tests and air bags that are put to good use in order to withstand an accident and protect people.

          Ultimately, understanding the designs and risk of a system or process is important as we continue our steps towards a more technological future. Although the world of technology and innovation is very exciting, we must never underestimate the deterimental possiblites of these designs backfiring on us. In conclusion, this equation is a great representation of how we should face our technological designs.

Reflection: 

          I enjoyed completeling this assigmemnet because it truly made me understand what kind of factors engineers have to take into consideration before designing something. Although there are alot of goals that engineers put towards themselves to achieve, they are also faced with the pressures of understanding the risks of failures during their developments. While understanding potential failure and how to deal with it is important in the world of engineering, it is a good guide to take advantage of in other aspects of our lives as well.