DRAFT: This module has unpublished changes.

Risk and Vulnerability

 

Consequences of failure, or risk = [vulnerability x probability of occurrence x cost (or magnitude)] / mitigation or preparedness 

 

     I believe that this equation means that the consequences of failure or risk can be dissected, and is a combination of how likely something is to fail, and how much that failure would actually affect you. One must take both into consideration when assessing the risk of any engineered structure or device. For example, if something has a high probability of failing but the failure does not affect you much, than there is really no risk. This, for example allows for innovation and exploration when the risk of failure existing is actually a good thing. The cost/magnitude is what effects you and is the most important factor of this equation. If something has a low probability of being successful, but the cost or magnitude is very large you are still taking a decently large risk that may be impossible to justify. Both probability and magnitude must be looked at together.

     A current engineered device that has risk involved with it is the long-board that I ride. This board is a Penny Board and is essentially a standard size skateboard with long board wheels and trucks on it. Trucks, being the part of the board that connect the wheels to the platform and allow one to turn, or pivot on the board by shifting their weight to either side.

     Because the board has a minimal amount of components involved with it, the risk of failure is generally low to start off. Less components means there are less things that can fail. A car by comparison, has a myriad of components that are important to its functioning and safety that can fail, this causes risk to increase a great deal. Although the board has low risk due to its simple design there is sill a good amount of risk involved due to other factors. The rider of this board has to trust the engineering when they ride it, as a failure of any one of the parts can cause the rider to crash, which could potentially be very harmful. Boards such as this one are designed to ride on roads and sidewalks, cement and asphalt, which are specifically not forgiving when you land on it with high speed and momentum behind you. It is obvious that a board like this has both high and low risk for different reasons, but actual risk is not as obvious unless you dissect the factors and observe the consequences of risk equation. Rider safety, given the inherent dangers of traveling unprotected at a high rate of speed makes the cost of failure very serious, even though the device itself isn't very expensive or complicated.

     To recap, the risk equation is: the consequences of risk or failure = [vulnerability x probability of occurrence x cost (magnitude)]/ mitigation or preparedness. When talking about the Penny board, the vulnerability can be affected greatly with simple choices made by the rider. The person riding the board could decrease their vulnerability by wearing protective gear. In the case of an accident, this will decrease how dangerous falling would be. Vulnerability of the product can be reduced by regular maintenance of the board. Keeping track of the condition of the wheels and bearings is important as well as checking the nuts and bolts to make sure they are tight and secure before riding.

     Probability of occurrence could also be affected by the rider’s decisions. Riding the board in dangerous areas or conditions increases the probability of anything happening. Roads that are specifically steep, or are covered in rocks and debris are both dangerous areas to ride and if avoided can make for safer riding. Riding in the rain or snow can result in the board slipping and may cause an accident, which can obviously be avoided by only riding the board in nice weather.

     Penny boards are really durable boards (being made of plastic and metal) so in this case, the cost or magnitude of an accident would be more about the rider than the condition of the board. Because of this, the cost and magnitude is very much like the vulnerability. When looking at the components of the risk equation it is obvious that risk can be greatly affected by the actions of the person using the board. This is why the equation is all divided by mitigation or preparedness.

     Psychology plays a big role in how the risk is perceived. A lot of people think that it is pretty crazy to ride on an open, unprotected device, and consider the board to be an unnecessary risk no matter how well it is engineered or built. But the people who ride them see a lot of value in both the way they are engineered and built and in how much fun they are to ride and how practical they are as a form of pollution-free, low carbon footprint transportation. For riders the risk is not as high as it is to the people that believe they are too unsafe to ride in public places.

 

Below are some pictures of Penny boards.

 

A picture by me, of my board:

  A picture of someone riding a Penny board (not my picture)

 

Some of the components of the board (also not my picture)

 

 

 

 

DRAFT: This module has unpublished changes.