DRAFT: This module has unpublished changes.

Depletion of Fossil Fuels

 

            The depletion of fossil fuels is dependent on two factors: annual consumption and current remaining fossil fuels.  For my calculation the assumption shall be made that as fossil fuels approach zero, an increase in price does not change the rate of usage since that usage will still be necessary. Also, the assumption will be made that between now and the depletion of fossil fuels fuel-using technology does not exponentially increase, and so the percentage increase each year is constant.

     

            The three types of fossil fuels are coal, oil, and natural gas. The remaining reserves of each are as follows:

            oil—133 billion barrels  (1)

            coal—259.5 billion short tons (2)

            natural gas— 6,609 trillion cubic feet (3)

               

            Now, with the amount left of each type of fossil fuel, we must find the annual rate of consumption.

Oil— according to the US Energy Information Administration, we are using   roughly 90,000 barrels of oil a day, with approximately a 2% increase each year. (% increase each year calculated off of average % increase in past 20 years). (1)

Coal— roughly 8 billion a year with an approximate 4% increase a year (2)

Natural gas— 115 trillion cubic feet a year with an approximate 4% increase a year (3)

               

            With both necessary values, we can calculate time necessary for depletion of each with the following formula:

                0 = time * (AnnualConsumption * (1 + PercentIncreasePerYear)time – RemainingFuel

               

            This leaves us with the following final values:

Oil— Approximately 81 years

Coal— Approximately 17 years

Natural gas— Approximately 23 years

References:

  1. http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/2010_downloads/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2010.pdf
  2. http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=coal_reserves
  3. http://www.naturalgas.org/overview/resources.asp
DRAFT: This module has unpublished changes.