Microsoft's future can basically be predicted with two simple outcomes. 

• Slow but steady increase in success.
• Slow but steady decrease in success.

Microsoft easily controls the software industry along with the gaming industry as long as they stay up-to-date on the technology and keep advancing with their products.  For the PC, Tablet, and Mobile device market, Microsoft has some work to do.  With Apple and Google being its main external threats, Microsoft has to keep the advantages they have above them including gaming and software; advantages.  Without those, Microsoft will most definitely see a decline.   

Fortunately for Microsoft, software it is more based on the "loyalty" of the consumer and what consumers are used to; so the software industry mostly likely still is steady benefit for Microsoft even with the PC on a slight decline.  With the tablet and mobile device industries, Microsoft needs to focus on breaking the ties from the consumer with Apple/Google and allow Microsoft's product stand out enough to allow those consumers to switch.  Microsoft still has a strong opportunity to get a decent hold on the tablet and mobile device industries with the right product development and marketing.  However, I do not see Microsoft shooting up to the top of the charts and out-pacing Apple and Google; but a strong 3rd place with domination in software and gaming would definitely push Microsoft in the right direction.  

Microsoft is still in a strong competitive position because it is already established in the industries.  It might not be the leader in every single industry, but it at least has its footing with a product that is winning over a handful of consumers.  With its Surface and new Windows 8 phone in the industry, it is slowly switching consumers from Apple/Google, to Microsoft, but not at the rate Microsoft was hoping for.